The USA's sad, tragic pandemic planning and response history

Government leaders, many others ignored warnings from scientists year after year. Trump Administration ignored results of its own pandemic planning exercise and cut health security programs instead.

This special edition is being sent out in place of the usual newsletter for today because I am observing the Jewish holiday. I wish a year of peace, health and goodnesss to all who observe and all in our communities. News headlines will resume as usual Tuesday.

While the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease - 2019) had never been seen before the end of 2019, the likelihood of a novel infectious disease rapidly spreading across the globe was not. Scientists, historians, journalists and — yes, many government officials — were sounding alarms about infectious diseases and the potential of a global pandemic for years.

This timeline includes some of the major moments. There are many more. Each item listed includes links to primary or other credible sources.

1994: Journalist Laurie Garrett’s book, The Coming Plague, was published. Culminating more than a decade of work, Garrett won the Pulitzer Prize, among many other honors for her prophetic work. When Garrett started this work, we both worked at NPR. With her scientific training, Garrett’s unmatched insights into infectious diseases, epidemiology and public health gave her a window into the global risk of infectious diseases, a risk that few considered — then or now.

1998: After recognizing the potential for a biological weapon attack against the United States, President Clinton created the National Pharmaceutical Stockpile, the first attempt to warehouse drugs and vaccines in case the USA confronted a pandemic.

2005: Building on his predecessor’s work and after listening to scientists within the United States government, President George W. Bush gave a speech urging commitment to creating a national pandemic plan. "If we wait for a pandemic to appear, it will be too late to prepare. And one day many lives could be needlessly lost because we failed to act today."

2011: The movie Contagion depicted a global pandemic caused by a virus remarkably similar to COVID-19. In the movie, the virus moved from bats to humans at an Asian food market, then to the United States via a business traveler, and nearly everyone she came near. Scientific advisers to the movie included journalist Laurie Garrett and Columbia University infectious disease expert Ian Lipkin. The lead scientist in the movie was modeled after Lipkin, and actors from the movie trained in his lab before filming.

2014: President Obama called on Congress to improve funding for pandemic planning. They did not.

2016-2017: Before President Trump took office, National Security Council officials led a pandemic response exercise for the incoming White House staff in January 2017.

2018: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio,) wrote to President Trump and National Security Adviser John Bolton expressing concerns about White House plans to cut national health security programs. “In our globalized world, where diseases are never more than a plane ride away, we must do all we can to prepare for the next, inevitable outbreak and keep Americans safe from disease,” said Brown.

2019: The Trump White House held its own pandemic exercise but appeared to take no actions to improve preparedness afterwards. Then-director of National Intelligence Dan Coats published a report that warned of pandemic risk: “We assess that the United States and the world will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or largescale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.” The White House reassigned the National Security Council’s health security experts and slashed funding for CDC and other pandemic preparedness activities.

2020: COVID-19 emerges. The United States tallies more deaths than any other nation.

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