That curve is not flat

Cases, hospitalizations and deaths increasing in some states, and struggles with both testing materials and testing strategy continue.

The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracker shows cases trending sharply up in South Dakota, Montana, Puerto Rico, Wisconsin, Utah and North Carolina. If you want to explore the data further, visit the JHU site directly. The case fatality map is intriguing. Here is the map showing trends based on 3-day moving averages of new confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Here are today’s COVID-19 stories that matter most:

• With more states loosening restrictions, schools opening and “COVID fatigue” setting in, cases, hospitalizations and deaths are trending up in many parts of across the country. Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb warns that the USA may be approaching a “third wave” that will “dwarf” everything else we have seen with COVID-19 so far. Even New York has started to see test results headed in the wrong direction.

• A paper published online by JAMA says colleges must put more emphasis on isolation and quarantine, not just testing, in order to safely operate during the COVID-19 pandemic. The report was based on CDC data showing surges of new cases at college campuses in North Carolina and elsewhere.

• Nursing homes are struggling to deal with “free” COVID-19 testing devices distributed by the U.S. government because they must purchase the actual test kits on their own — at a cost of about $32 per kit, according to the New York Times.

• As some experts have pointed out recently, the widely used PCR tests to detect the virus that causes COVID-19 may be too sensitive, so that it reports as “positive” individuals who have so little virus that they could not be sick or contagious. Here’s an article that reviews the problem and what happens when the sensitivity is adjusted.

And if you are watching political news:

Cutting through the fog: The president’s announcement Monday of a “plan to distribute 150 million Abbott rapid point-of-care tests” was a repeat of an announcement that was made in August.