How worried should we be about omicron?
Zooming in on New Year's as people scramble to find test kits and understand CDC and other public health guidance as new infection numbers reach new heights
The sky is not falling, although it’s reasonable to feel as if we are on Groundhog Day. The reality is that we are so much better off than we were at this time a year ago. But we are not nearly as well off as we thought we would be. This is the time to take a clear look at what went wrong — and not let the same mistakes happen again. Even if omicron isn’t as severe as prior strains, we had nearly 500,000 new cases in the last 24 hours. That’s almost double the previous worst day of the past two years, which was in January 2021.
My thoughts about the current situation are below. But first, know that the evidence clearly supports recommendations that we should:
Avoid large indoor gatherings,
Improve ventilation wherever possible, and
Wear good masks (N95s or KN95s) pretty much anytime we are in a place with people outside our household.
Here’s my take on omicron and where we are now.
Even though there is mounting data indicating omicron is less severe than previous strains of COVID-19, I haven’t seen data that convinces me this is true or applies to the USA. It’s very likely that the data is skewed because it is from places where vaccination rates are higher than many US communities. What is unequivocally true is that people who are vaccinated — and especially people who are vaccinated and boosted — are well protected against severe illness or death from omicron or any other known strain of COVID-19.
The virus is airborne, and you can’t tell where. Omicron is more efficiently transmitted than delta, and people who are vaccinated can pass the virus along. People who are not vaccinated are more likely to transmit the virus because the virus replicates in much larger numbers when there is no vaccine immunity fighting against it. This is why masks are important, even in highly vaccinated areas. See chart below.
If you get sick, there are treatments that can help. We know a lot more about how to treat COVID-19 than a year ago, and at least one of the existing monoclonal antibody products works against omicron (the others do not.) The new Pfizer antiviral medicine, which is remarkably effective, will start becoming available in January, but it won’t be in plentiful supply for months. Working against anyone who gets sick from COVID-19 or anything else: hospitals were strained before even the delta surge, and enough vulnerable people are getting sick with omicron or delta now that hospital beds are filling up again.
The vaccines continue to prove very high efficacy — and safety. A new CDC review of adverse events reported after children ages 5-11 received the Pfizer vaccine found that serious adverse events were rare. Out of 8 million doses administered in this age group, there were two deaths reported, both in children “who were in fragile health before vaccination.” There were 12 “serious” reports of seizure, and 15 cases of myocarditis. In addition to 100 reports of serious events overall, the CDC received more than 4,000 reports for “nonserious” events such as fever or vomiting.
The Washington Post has a good look at how confused vaccinated people are after testing positive for COVID-19, and the San Francisco Chronicle explains why a higher-income, predominantly white neighborhood of San Francisco now has the highest rate of new COVID-19 cases.
If you are struggling to find at-home antigen test kits, keep trying. Supplies are improving, and the federal government says it is taking steps to help, such as a new contract for manufacturing in the USA and FDA clearance of another two test kits.