Entering what may be our new normal
Bonus of frequent masking may be reduced flu, colds or allergies, but COVID-19 infections likely to cause long-term health problems for many. Fauci says 75K new cases/day is too much to "live with"
Here are my thoughts about the current state of things, followed by some news headlines.
I’ve been looking at a lot of data over the past two weeks and listened to many of the top experts trying to make sense of the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The consensus appears to be that we are going to be in something like the present state for a long time — could be a year or more. Now, the question is how to adapt.
A few things are clear: masks, testing and virtual meetings are going to be part of our norm for the foreseeable future. On the positive side, mask designs have improved, Zoom and other online platforms have gotten better and easier (check out the newest features in Apple’s FaceTime!) and the federal government just announced more steps to improve rapid and laboratory testing.
What isn’t known: Europe is confronting a new surge, and that could mean trouble here will follow. COVID-19 rates are nudging up in some places across the USA after several weeks of decline.
Let’s leave the blame game for others, but we must learn from history. Just as last summer’s deadly surges occurred almost immediately after precautions were prematurely lifted, we got into this stalled state when there was too much optimism about vaccination rates continuing to increase. In fact, vaccination rates stayed low in enough areas that even 90% rates in other locations weren’t enough to stop tens of thousands of new infections every day.
NIAID Director and White House medical advisor Dr. Tony Fauci says the current rate of new infections in the United States remains too high to let our guard down. He was interviewed on CBS Sunday Morning. (This clip starts at the most relevant point. Watch the whole interview for more insight and context.)
Clearly, COVID-19 has not been controlled. Rejection of protective measures gave the edge to SARS-CoV-2, a virus that very efficiently seeks out and finds susceptible hosts. But COVID-19 is still a pandemic, not yet an endemic infectious disease.
Now what? Check with your own healthcare providers and local health officials for specific guidance that applies to you and your community, but my general take on things is:
If you are vaccinated and in an area with high vaccination rates, then you probably can feel reasonably safe. However, masks might still be a good idea if you go indoors with people whose vaccination status is unknown or any crowded area.
If you are vaccinated and in a low vaccination area, then you must presume that people around you are spreading the virus. The practical implication is that you probably will want to wear masks a lot more than in high-vax areas, since you can transmit the virus even if you don’t get sick. If I was in an area like this, I would also continue avoiding crowds, especially indoors.
If you are traveling, presume that you are encountering unvaccinated people, so keep a good mask on as much as possible and wash hands frequently. If you are visiting family or others, consider having everyone take a rapid antigen test right before getting together and dropping the masks. The kits are becoming more available, and they are reasonably good at detecting active infection.
If you are not vaccinated, please get the COVID-19 vaccine ASAP. There is an enormous amount of data that tells us the vaccines are overwhelmingly safe and effective. There are very rare adverse events such as myocarditis after the mRNA vaccinations or blood clots after the J&J shots, but the risk of COVID-19 is vastly greater.
If you already had COVID-19 and recovered, you do not have as much protection as you would with the vaccine, so please get vaccinated.
For further reading:
What would health experts do? 28 share their holiday plans amid Covid-19 (statnews.com)
We need to start thinking differently about COVID outbreaks, says UCSF's Monica Gandhi (sfchronicle.com)
A few other stories of note:
NIH researchers have found one explanation for some of COVID-19’s sensory effects
The pandemic’s true death toll | The Economist
A Washington State hospital transformed by covid is deeply divided over mandatory vaccines - The Washington Post
Surgeon General releases toolkit to combat health misinformation
A Houston doctor has lost her hospital privileges because she spread misinformation about COVID-19
Testimony sheds light on how politics trumped science on COVID-19 testing strategy in 2020 - Washington Post
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