Don't let smoke and mirrors hide facts about COVID-19
Underlying factors contribute to COVID-19 deaths but do not change the cause of deaths; the USA crosses the 6-million threshold of COVID-19 cases, and
Seeing through the fog: As we’ve discussed before, the confusion and misinformation surrounding COVID-19 is getting worse, and the credibility of institutions that used to be trusted is fading. For communicators and other business or policy leaders, one of the most important things is to find trusted people to convey important messages. For example, if trying to get messages to college students, student leaders are more effective than a county or state health director — no matter what the credentials may be. As I explain in my book, when people are afraid, facts and data do not persuade.
The USA now has recorded more than 6 million COVID-19 cases, although there is some evidence that the upward trend number of new cases is slowing down. Complicating any analysis: testing rates are also down in some places.
Geographic variations in COVID-19 mitigation: White House advisor Dr. Deborah Birx raised concerns about COVID-19 spreading in rural areas. Visiting Minnesota Sunday, Birx said “There is a real attention to these mitigation efforts in the urban areas, but there really does need to be improvement out in many of the rural areas.” She also urged people to take COVID-19 seriously so that the number of cases goes down before winter raises other health risks.
The dynamics of superspreader events: Epidemiologists have traced at least 87 COVID-19 cases to one wedding held August 7 in Millinocket, Maine. According to a Maine health official, 30 of the 65 people who attended the wedding got COVID-19. Those 30 then infected at least 35 others, and those people infected another 22. Of the 87 infected individuals, 59 have developed symptoms and one died. The wedding reception, which included more people than permitted under local health orders, was held at a location where tables were closer than six-feet apart and staff were not wearing face coverings.
Understanding what COVID-19 test results mean: This New York Times article explains why existing COVID-19 testing has contributed to confusion more than protection.
Here are a few items that are more political but nonetheless important for anyone communicating about COVID-19, as they provide important context on messaging that influences our audiences.
White House may be embracing “more deaths” strategy: While the nation’s pre-eminent infectious disease expert recuperates from surgery, some policy shifts appear to reflect the influence of Dr. Scott Atlas, a Hoover Institution talking head and FoxNews favorite, despite statements denying it. As the Washington Post notes, Atlas has no credentials in epidemiology or infectious diseases. Atlas has been advocating since April to allow COVID-19 to spread so that Americans develop “herd immunity” and focus on protecting the most vulnerable instead of protecting everyone. This **might** help explain the guidelines shift last week that discourages COVID-19 testing or the presidential events where masks and social distancing were shunned.
For a reasoned explanation of “herd immunity” and some optimism about what Americans can do to control COVID-19, read this explanation by Johns Hopkins epidemiogist Justin Lessler.
Perpetuating myths: Partisans have been buzzing about claims that “94% of deaths” attributed to COVID are actually from other causes. Because this is false, Twitter removed a tweet by the president that included this inaccuracy. What the data actually shows is that nearly everyone who dies of COVID-19 has other health conditions, which in some cases, contribute to the cause of death. However, those deaths would not have occurred if not for the COVID-19 infection. (Side note: this inaccurate claim was even posted on the late Herman Cain’s Twitter feed. Cain died of COVID-19 in July, after he attended a Trump rally in Omaha.)
Credibility footnote: Just 11 days after being placed in the FDA’s top spokesperson role and five days after the FDA falsely reported that convalescent plasma reduced COVID-19 deaths by 35% (the real number is 3%,) a former One America News staff member has been moved to a different FDA role. Emily Miller had no health or science background.
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