C19 headlines - Thursday, June 25, 2020
Forget about a "new normal," we are entering a new reality
Texas rings the alarm bells
The surge is real: In Houston, the Texas Medical Center reports it has reached 100% of its ICU capacity and the present trajectory of new COVID-19 cases puts it on a path to “unsustainable surge capacity” on or about July 6.
Texas Gov. Abbott ordered hospitals to halt elective procedures and urged “all Texans to do their part to slow the spread of COVID-19 by wearing a mask, washing their hands regularly and socially distancing from others."
Age 65 is no longer a threshold for COVID-19 concern, according to an update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Now, the agency says about 60% of U.S. adults are at higher risk for getting severely ill from C19 infection. Although the risk increases steadily with age, anyone with these conditions is more likely to do poorly if they get C19: chronic kidney disease; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; obesity (BMI >30); transplant recipients; serious heart conditions; sickle cell disease; or, type 2 diabetes.
Germany and France committed to increasing funding for the World Health Organization as it continues to coordinate research and response to COVID-19 around the world. Part of the WHO response includes coordinating procurement and distribution of N95 masks and other supplies to 135 countries. The agency also warns of counterfeit and low-quality products flooding the market.
Reality starts to emerge
As in the example of Texas, the dire reality of the COVID-19 situation in the United States appears to be catching up with coronavirus deniers. Public health experts are sounding the alarm and expressing dismay, now that the virus appears to be spreading “out of control.”
The consensus is that exponential increases in new infections are likely imminent. Many of the areas with the highest number of new cases per capita are rural areas, where hospitals may be especially challenged if surges of critical patients arrive.
News site Axios calculates its own 7-day rolling averages and estimates that Arizona, Michigan, Texas and Florida have had increases greater than 50% this week, seven states have set records for COVID-19 hospitalizations, and only nine states have seen cases go down in the past week.
What this means: don’t expect the economy to be booming anytime soon. If you spend more than a few minutes close to a person you don’t live with, the risk of COVID-19 increases. Social distancing is going to be our “new normal” for the foreseeable future — probably well into next year.
Deep dives, data and context
The New York Times has created another one of its interactive timelines illustrating an in-depth reporting project documenting how COVID-19 went from 1 case to 15 cases to thousands more in just weeks. Among the Times’ findings: COVID-19 was spreading exponentially in at least six metropolitan areas during February, before it was detected.
This chart from the World Health Organization shows how dramatically the pandemic is growing, primarily in the United States — but also in Central and South America.
From our leader
President Trump continues to insist that the number of C19 cases is going up because of increased testing. If that were true, the number of hospitalizations and deaths would not be increasing as rapidly as it is in many places.
Here’s an “opposing view” from Columbia University physician and Ebola survivor Craig Spencer:
Please cover your face whenever you might be within someone else’s space.